The glimmer of hope from autumn has faded: The skilled trades are coming under increasing pressure, and the economic situation is worsening. (Photo: © amh-online.de)
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May 2026
The skilled trades sector has slowed down. Many businesses assess their current situation as significantly worse than a year ago. Sales are also declining. What happens next depends heavily on the Iran war.
In autumn 2025, there was a glimmer of hope for the skilled trades. But now the economy is stagnating. This is according to the latest report. ZDH Economic Report for the first quarter of 2026 Hervor.
External shocks such as the Iran war and the associated exploding energy prices on the commodity markets and strained supply chains This is leaving its mark on businesses. Prices for many products, such as bitumen, a crucial building and sealing material for roofers, are currently skyrocketing.
What happens next is uncertain. "The availability of many products and materials is highly questionable, at least for the next few months; global demand has suffered a significant setback," he said. Central Association of German Crafts (ZDH) in Berlin.
The Energy price shock The impact is currently most noticeable in most businesses when refueling vehicles. "Higher energy costs for production and heating only have a delayed effect, as tradespeople typically have long-term supply contracts with fixed rates," the association reports.
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What happens in 2026?, depends heavily on the length of the Iran conflict. "Whether the slight increase in sales in the skilled trades originally projected for 2026 can be achieved cannot be reliably predicted under the current uncertainties. The necessary and repeatedly postponed Federal government's reform plans This makes it even more urgent."
The skilled trades are demanding, among other things, "less bureaucracy, a reduction in the tax and contribution burden, reliable energy costs, the future-proof restructuring of social systems and further incentives for expanding the volume of work and tapping into the hidden reserve in the labor market".
According to the German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH), craft businesses assess their current business situation significantly worse than a year ago: The business situation indicator has fallen from 20 to 13 points. Expectations are also gloomy, the association reports: "The business climate indicator for the skilled trades, which combines the current situation and expectations, has fallen by six points to 107 points – the already slight upward trend of the two previous years has thus already been wiped out."
Sales in the skilled trades sector are also declining sharply. The sales indicator, the balance of positive and negative reports on sales trends, has fallen by two points to minus 25. However, most businesses do not expect any further declines in sales for the spring.
Employment in the skilled trades is declining noticeably – as it did a year ago. The employment indicator remains unchanged at minus nine points, matching the value of the first quarter of 2025.
The already weaker demand for labor in winter is further dampened by the economic downturn. The situation is exacerbated by demographic trends: there are not enough qualified professionals available for many open positions.
The Order backlog in the entire skilled trades sector According to the German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH), order backlogs are shrinking again, and this time more sharply. The average order backlog is just under nine weeks.
The way food is Investment activity Remain cautious. "Many businesses are limiting themselves to the absolute essentials." This too is a warning sign, according to the ZDH, and a Vote of no confidence by businesses compared to the economic policy conditions.
"The significant deterioration in the business climate and expectations is more than just a snapshot of current sentiment; it must be understood as a warning. When businesses lose faith in improvement, uncertainty translates into a reluctance to invest and hire. This cannot be attributed solely to disruptive geopolitical changes and developments, but also to policies that are insufficiently focused on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and fail to offer reliable prospects. Following the cancellation of the autumn reforms, confidence in a spring reform has plummeted. What is lacking is a comprehensive reform package that ensures sustainable conditions in the long term, particularly regarding energy costs. Anything else will only exacerbate the crisis," he said. ZDH Secretary General Holger Schwannecke to the news agency dpa.
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