New gas heating systems must use 60 percent climate-friendly fuels such as biomethane and other renewable gases by 2040. (Photo: © Alexander Raths /123RF.com)

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Study: Costs for gas heating could double by 2040

July 27, 2026

The new heating law once again permits the installation of new gas heating systems. However, a study by the German Economic Institute shows that costs will rise significantly in the long term.

Since the introduction of the new Building Modernization Act ("Heating Act"), homeowners and landlords can once again install fossil fuel heating systems . However, they must ensure that their systems gradually use a higher proportion of climate-friendly gases such as biomethane ("bio-staircase"). While the lower purchase costs of gas heating systems provide short-term relief, model calculations by the German Economic Institute (IW) demonstrate that this decision will be significantly more expensive in the medium term.

Green gas quota is one reason

The study examines a typical, partially renovated apartment in an older building with an annual energy consumption of 10.000 kilowatt-hours. Annual costs could nearly double from €1.080 in 2026 to €1.952 in 2040. This is primarily due to the mandatory blending of climate-friendly gases, which accounts for over 70 percent of the cost increase.

Three factors determine the cost increase:

Addition of climate-friendly gases
New gas heating systems must initially use ten percent climate-friendly fuels such as biomethane and others from 2029, and up to 60 percent by 2040. renewable gases use them. But these will remain in the future as well. meager, This means that gas heating users will have to expect additional costs of 643 euros per year in 2040.
Gas network charges
Due to the decreasing number of households with gas connections, the fixed costs are spread across fewer users. Therefore, the fees per connection. The IW estimates additional annual costs of 184 euros in 2040.
CO₂ prices
Heating with gas causes CO₂ emissions, which increase with rising temperatures. CO₂ price This factor remains relatively low at 44 euros per year, as the proportion of fossil natural gas is reduced by the "bio-staircase".

More complex distribution of consequential costs

The previous requirement that new heating systems must consist of at least 65 percent renewable energy has been eliminated. This gives property owners more freedom when replacing their heating systems. Nevertheless, the running costs of fossil fuel heating systems are rising noticeably. In the future, the distribution of costs between landlords and tenants will become more complex. "Politicians are selling the new heating law as freedom in the boiler room – without additional costs. That's misleading," says IW expert Ralph Henger. "Anyone who opts for a new gas heating system will ultimately pay more – landlords and tenants alike."