"2026 will be the year of the car"

According to a ZDK forecast, the German passenger car market will recover next year. There are "clear signals of a return to growth".

The Central Association of the German Motor Vehicle Industry The German Association of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) anticipates significantly higher demand in the passenger car market next year. The plans of Federal government The promotion of electric drives, after two difficult years due to the suspension of subsidies for electric vehicles, sends a clear signal for a return to growth.

In its annual forecast, the ZDK predicts an increase in new passenger car registrations of 3,5 to 4 percent next year, reaching approximately 2,95 million vehicles. Of these, 1,1 million vehicles are expected to have a battery-electric drive, including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids. 

"Electromobility can truly arrive in the market"

Reasons for the increased demand include a wider range of electric models in the small and compact car segments, greater driving ranges, decreasing price differences between combustion engine and electric vehicles, and the ongoing expansion of the charging infrastructure. "The political impetus, the broader model range, and the growing everyday usability of electric drives are finally coming together," explains Thomas Peckruhn.

"2026 will be the year in which electromobility can truly arrive in the market, provided the right course is set," said the ZDK president. For 2025, the ZDK anticipates only a slight increase in new passenger car registrations and a stagnant market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). It expects the market to barely reach the 2023 level this year. The continued high electricity prices for charging and a shortage of charging points in residential areas are also having a dampening effect.

"Support measures can initiate a decisive change"

Without a faster ramp-up of e-mobility, CO₂ emissions are at risk in just a few years.₂A price of up to €300 per ton, and thus 70 to 80 cents more per liter of fuel. Mobility would become a social issue because people without access to new cars would be excluded from affordable motoring. This makes the federal government's new funding strategy all the more important.

"We urgently need more affordable electric vehicles and alternative fuels. That's why the subsidies now announced are essential," emphasizes Peckruhn. After the funding halt by the previous coalition government, private demand has practically collapsed. However, the subsidy measures planned by the current coalition government could now initiate a decisive turnaround.

The used car market remains stable.

The used car market will remain stable at a high level in 2025. Despite continued high new car prices, the increase in ownership transfers has been moderate so far due to lower interest rates. The German Association of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) expects around 6,5 million changes of ownership by the end of the year. This level is also expected to continue in 2026. Peckruhn: "The used car market is once again demonstrating its strength: It cushions price fluctuations and keeps Germany mobile."

Source: ZDK

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